Wednesday, March 18, 2020

Timeframe Between Market Crashes

Interesting chart to display with timeframes between crashes. The key is staying out of the frenzy and selling off during the drawdown, buying when there is blood in the streets and I can't comment as to whether it makes sense to trade in and out of the market as it is too hard to time and you may miss good opportunities. The market as it is today is where it was 4-5 years ago now. Would it have made sense to sit out during this?

Whats interesting is also the time frame between Market Crashes that creates buying opportunites in 1970, 1973, 1980, 1987, 2000, 2008, and 2020    3 years, 7 years, 7 years, 13 years, 8 years, and 12 years, between draw downs beginning. So after looking at this if you don't want to chase the market you can wait anywhere from 3 years to as many as 13 years for the next good buying opportunity and I believe these "Black Swan" events are ergodicity.  
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