Wednesday, January 19, 2022

Future of Outsoucring

 If you are looking for the future of outsourcing and a potential global competitor to Linkedin check out the website Wantedly that I reference below. Along with some other random sites I've recently found old profiles of mine on.

Sunday, January 16, 2022

New York Times Covers Accountability

 The New York Times one of the most reliable newspapers and the namesake for New York City's Time's Sqaure covered Accountability and admitting when you're wrong in their morning newsletter. This is the take from top experts:

Taking stock

Jennifer Nuzzo is a health expert who has become nationally prominent during the pandemic. She is the leading epidemiologist for Johns Hopkins University’s much-cited data collection on Covid-19 testing. She is active on Twitter and quoted frequently in the media. She can explain complex ideas in clear terms, and she has often been prophetic about Covid.

Nonetheless, she took to Twitter last May to criticize herself. She had expected Texas’ ending of its mask mandate to lead to a surge in cases, and it had not:

Nuzzo’s small exercise in self accountability highlighted the inherent unpredictability of this virus. (Masks do reduce its spread, but the effect can be too modest to be visible across an entire community or state.) Her tweet made a larger point, too: People with a public platform should be willing to admit when they’re wrong.

There is no shame in being wrong at times. Everybody is, including knowledgeable experts. The world is a messy, uncertain place. The only way to be right all the time is to be silent or say nothing interesting.

The problem isn’t that people make mistakes; it’s that so few are willing to admit it.

Many experts instead post aggrandizing praise of themselves on social media. They claim that each new development — be it on Covid, the economy, politics or foreign affairs — justifies what they’ve been saying all along. They don’t grapple with the weak points in their arguments and hope nobody notices their past incorrect predictions.

We journalists commit the same sins. More than a decade ago, in an effort to do better, David Weigel of Slate (and now of The Washington Post) introduced a concept he called “pundit accountability.” It describes articles in which journalists highlight their own mistakes — and not small factual errors, which often get corrected, but errors of analysis, which don’t.

Today’s newsletter is my annual attempt at pundit accountability. Below, I’ll link to other writers who have written similar articles in recent weeks.

Looking back on the past year of Morning newsletters made me feel proud of our coverage, especially on Covid, and I’m grateful to the many readers who have come to rely on the newsletter. But that’s enough self-aggrandizement. As Nuzzo would say, accountability time.

1. Breakthroughs

I, too, underestimated the unpredictability of the virus.

Before the Delta variant emerged, infections among vaccinated people — known as breakthrough infections — were rare. I assumed that the pattern would probably continue throughout 2021. If it had, huge new waves of infection, like the current one, would have been impossible.

Instead, Delta led to an increase in breakthrough infections, and Omicron has led to a larger increase. Symptoms are usually mild, but they can lead to bad outcomes for a small share of vaccinated people whose health is already vulnerable, like the elderly. The surge of breakthrough infections means Covid often still dominates everyday life.

I have since tried to absorb the lesson of Covid’s uncertainty and have emphasized it in more recent newsletters. As Michael Osterholm of the University of Minnesota — who has long emphasized Covid’s unavoidable unknowns — has said, “We still are really in the cave ages in terms of understanding how viruses emerge, how they spread, how they start and stop, why they do what they do.”

2. Waning immunity

I was too skeptical of the early signs of waning vaccine immunity and the importance of boosters.

Toward the end of the summer, some researchers began pointing to data suggesting that the power of vaccines waned after about six months. Other researchers doubted that case, saying that the data was unclear — and that pharmaceutical companies had an obvious incentive to promote waning immunity and boosters. But the case for boosters now seems clear.

Amid uncertain evidence, I try to avoid automatically assuming the worst. Often, that’s the right approach. (A lot of early Covid alarmism — about the virus’s effect on children, the contagiousness of Delta and the severity of Omicron, for instance — has proved to be misplaced.) Sometimes, though, the ominous signs are the ones worth heeding.

Another lesson: The quality of Covid data in the U.S. is poor, often clouding early judgments. It can make sense to look to Israel, where the data is better. Experts there quickly recognized that waning immunity was real.

Other accountability

“I think it’s really important for the media and for other institutions like the C.D.C. to build trust by being honest about when they got things wrong,” Derek Thompson of The Atlantic said on The Bill Simmons Podcast. Thompson’s own mea culpa: underestimating breakthrough infections.

My colleague Shira Ovide asked tech experts to describe their misplaced forecasts, including over-optimism about self-driving cars.

Matthew Yglesias of Substack listed all the 2021 predictions he got wrong, including whether a Supreme Court justice would retire.

Damon Linker of The Week underestimated the seriousness of Jan. 6 and said he didn’t praise Liz Cheney enough.

Derek Robertson of Politico wrongly thought that President Biden could help end the culture wars, and Doyle McManus of The Los Angeles Times was too optimistic about Biden’s first year.

Karl Rove, who writes a Wall Street Journal column, said that he went 17.5 for 25 in his 2021 predictions, while three Vox writers said they went 13 for 22.


Wednesday, December 22, 2021

Shower Thoughts - When People Eat Cows They're Meat Eaters Eating a Vegetarian

 So all these meat eaters take pride in eating an animal that thrives on greens and grass.. Ironic?

Monday, December 20, 2021

AI Advice from google

 Google supplies very good artificial intelligence research and advice from their engineers. This is one of those great examples:

Thursday, December 16, 2021

New York Times Covers Important Points About Omicron

 The New York Times one of the most well respected newspapers covers Omicron and the Coronovirus in such a disciplined and honest manner. While other news organizations may engage in intense fear mongering to increase their viewership or readership the NY Times strikes me  as an organization that does so unbiasedly.

From their morning newsletter they said the following:

Some evidence even suggests Omicron is less severe. A new study from Hong Kong, for example, found that Omicron replicated itself less efficiently than Delta inside the lungs, which could make it less likely to cause acute symptoms. But many scientists say it is too soon to be confident.

Either way, the crucial question for most people is not whether Omicron is less severe than earlier versions of the virus; the question is whether Omicron is more severe. So far, the answer is no.

If that continues to be true, it will mean that Omicron — like earlier variants — presents only a very small risk of serious illness to most vaccinated people. It is the kind of risk that people accept every day without reordering their lives, not so different from the chances of hospitalization or death from the flu or a car crash.

Unfortunately, there are some vaccinated people for whom any Covid case remains a threat. Those whose health is already vulnerable — like the elderly, people undergoing cancer treatments, people who have received organ transplants and some other groups — can become extremely ill from a Covid case that is mild in a technical sense. Their bodies are weak enough that any infection can cause major problems. It’s the same reason that the seasonal flu kills tens of thousands of Americans annually.

These are the people, in addition to the unvaccinated, who need the most attention now that Omicron has arrived.


So the next month will be telling as to what the future may hold. 

Tuesday, November 9, 2021

We will find a permanent solution to coronviruses

 An enthralling article about coronaviruses and how certain viruses share a large percentage of the same code and thus decoding future ones as we put funding towards fighting bioweapons like we did after 9/11 is going to be something that we need to renew. Whether it was George Bush's Administration or Obamas or Trumps or Bidens that cut the funding is irrelevant now. Whats important is that we move forward with finding permanent solutions.

Richart Ruddie quoting from the article below:

"We know there are numerous viruses in animal reservoirs throughout the entire globe, and we know some of these viruses can potentially spread into humans and cause vast outbreaks. So there is a renewed interest to develop medical countermeasures against these pandemic viruses, and other infectious diseases with pandemic potential,” Richner says. “There was a big push for this after September 11, to create countermeasures against bioterrorism and against any emerging viruses. But a lot of that funding wasn't renewed.”

The question will be whether politicians and a public exhausted by the current pandemic will be willing to take the risk of confronting—or even make the effort of imagining—the next emergent threat."

Courtesy of

Friday, September 24, 2021

This Entrepreneur Article Resonates

Some great quotes and lines in this piece:

creativity happens when the constraints get applied

Don't use the word failure. Instead, you should call it “the successful discovery of something that did not work." This will lead to something that does work and figuring out how to fix issues in a time of panic.

Chaos and failure are powerful tools that forced entrepreneurs can keep in their tool belt. They teach us how to pivot and adapt—and those are essential skills for any entrepreneur,

It should be noted here that forced entrepreneurs face a lot of pressure. There’s no plan B, no option to quit; they need their business to succeed. If there was ever a recipe for anxiety, that sounds like it.

When you have no choice but to survive, you get really resourceful.

A friend of mine often says, “creativity happens when the constraints get applied.” To really feel these constraints, you have to act like an owner.

Burn the boats? So what does that mean. It's adapt or die. If you don't survive on your mission you can't go back on the boat and head home because it doesn't exist.

“burn the boats”? The story goes that during the Spanish conquest of Mexico in 1519, Spanish commander Hernán Cortés deliberately destroyed his own ships so that his men would have only two options: conquer or die."

Pivot & Adapt to succeed.
Official website