Friday, October 9, 2020

Why We're So Bad At Predictions

This piece from Nassim Taleb explains why we're so bad at predicting the pandemic and the outcomes of total deaths.

Source: https://forecasters.org/wp-content/uploads/Talebetal_25062020.pdf

MAIN STATEMENTS from the piece:

(i)– Forecasting single variables in fat-tailed domains is in violation of both common sense and probability theory. 

(ii)– Pandemics are extremely fat-tailed events, with potentially destructive tail risk. Any model ignoring this is necessarily flawed.

(iii)– Science is not about making single points predictions but about understanding properties (which can sometimesbe tested by single point estimates and predictions). 

(iv)– Sound risk management is concerned with extremes, tails and their full properties, and not with averages, the bulk of a distribution or naive estimates. 

(v)– Naive fortune-cookie evidentiary methods fail to work under both risk management and fat tails,because the absence of evidence can play a large role in the properties. 

(vi)– There are feedback mechanisms between forecast and reaction that cancels the invalidity of some predictions. 

(vii)– Exponential dynamics automatically satisfies the mathematical condition for chaos and its unpredictability

Other great data and information to help educate us and make us smarter while being more accountable you can read: https://forecasters.org/wp-content/uploads/Ioannidisetal25062020-1.pdf

Friday, October 2, 2020

The 5 Types of Inflation to examine for your business

COBI - Cost of Business Inflation COGI - Cost of Government Inflation COII - Cost of Investing Inflation COLI - Cost of Living Inflation

Friday, September 25, 2020

Richart Ruddie of Fort Lauderdale Florida Says this is 17.5x More Deadly than COVID-19

 




Cardiovascular diseases will be approximately 17.5 times more deadly than COVID-19. The big difference is that the ease in which you can catch COVID-19 and how rapidly it affects you and has the potential to activate other immunocompromised issues and kill you.

So it's not that COVID-19 is even nearly as deadly as other issues but it's more rapid. Only car accidents according to the chart above states that it's more deadly with little to no notice. So what do we do? Once COVID-19 is erradticated we should focus on curing cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and other lifestyle activities that cause these issues.

So don't be afraid because if you looked at the chart above you would think you're odds of dying are severly increased. Sometimes ignorance is bliss but make health conscious decisions to improve your lifestyle and logevity.

Tuesday, September 22, 2020

Startup Idea Generator Website

Looking for a startup idea generator that you can claim as your own? Using the power of artificial intelligence has created a software that spits out ideas using different startup API's and if you like an idea you can claim it for $99 and have it removed from the website. Some of the ideas for startups are listed below and if you want to see some of the ones for yourself go visit: https://ideasai.net

A company that makes “smart” luggage tags, allowing users to track their bags with the app.

A startup that setsup automatic payments to charities

A startup that lists jobs for students for the summer. (well yes this  has been done we know that)

A startup that provides a list of physical therapists and one with massage therapists.

Follow Levelsio on Twitter. Definitely a bright mind who is onto big things.
https://twitter.com/levelsio/status/1299329172800765957

He is also the creator of other well known product hunt sites like:

nomadlist.com


remoteok.io

hoodmaps.com

makebook.io

ideasAI.net

Monday, September 14, 2020

Kurt Cobain's House Address 171 Lake Washington Blvd E Seattle, Washington 98122 USA for your Grunge in Seattle Washington Tour

 For the Grunge enthusiats that want to visit the home of the late Kurt Cobain where he passed away in 1994. As it felt like just yesterday some who have never been to Seattle would like to see the places that Kurt went to. One home that you can drive up to the gate while respecting the current owners privacy is the home he last lived in at:

171 Lake Washington Blvd E
Seattle, Washington
98122 USA

In addition if you want to take a road trip down to the small town of Aberdeen, Washington you can visit his grave, the memorial for where he lived as a homeless person under the bridge and get a vibe about the town that he grew up in. I went to the town recently and felt it. If you're a die hard grunge or Nirvana fan than I recommend you to visit as well.


Sunday, August 30, 2020

Quote of the Day

Bill Gates wrote about a quote today for Warren Buffets Birthday: 

“You will move in the direction of the people that you associate with. So it’s important to associate with people that are better than yourself. The friends you have will form you as you go through life. Make some good friends, keep them for the rest of your life, but have them be people that you admire as well as like.”

Saturday, August 22, 2020

Childish Gambino Got his Name from a Wu-Tang Clan Name Generator

 That's right Daniel Glover put his name into the Wu Tang Clan Name generator and out came "Childish Gambino"

Try it for yourself and see:

http://www.mess.be/inickgenwuname.php

Wednesday, August 19, 2020

Relationship to pain

Think about this our relationship to pain is largely determined by our beliefs about pain and suffering. When we believe that pain is permanent and debilitating, then it becomes permanently debilitating.So as the quote goes where the mind goes the body will follow.

Be positive and motivating and help bring up others around you instead of putting them down. Positivity is a movement we should all get behind.

Tuesday, July 21, 2020

Be Exceptional and Avoid Market Risks

The best way to hedge against a market risk in a downturn like the great recession of the COVID-19 Global Pandemic is to be exceptional.

"The surest safeguard against market conditions, be they good or bad, is having truly exceptional work. “Great material fetches great prices in any kind of market" note for business, art, food, or anything during these times. Be exceptional."

Whatever the business or personality you drive make it stand out and you will be okay in any market conditions.

Saturday, July 4, 2020

Quote About Trusting Your Instinct in Business

You can't make sense of it looking forward; you can only do so by looking backwards. So you have to trust in your future.

You have to trust in something that will play out correctly with you navigating accordingly. Trust your gut and instinct.

Sunday, June 28, 2020

Richart Ruddie Twitter

If you are following Richart Ruddie on Twitter make sure you are on the official twitter handle:

https://twitter.com/RichartRuddie

Friday, June 26, 2020

New Florida Laws are all great says Richart Ruddie

Great to see all these new Florida laws coming into affect next week. They all seem sensible and helpful for a better state. One of them is holocaust education which hopefully will stop the 1 or 2 deniers that are just lunatics.

https://www.wptv.com/news/state/new-florida-laws-that-go-into-effect-on-july-1-2020

One of them is even related to e-Bikes:
The bill creates regulations governing the operation of e-bikes in the state of Florida, allowing them on streets, highways, roadways, shoulders, bicycle lanes, and bicycle or multiuse paths. Local governments still maintain authority to limit their use.

Friday, June 5, 2020

Bookmark for Glass Vials

7-14 billion vials needed and a potential shortage as a result of lack of recycling:

https://www.fastcompany.com/90507403/the-covid-19-vaccine-will-require-billions-of-glass-vials-but-lockdowns-are-cratering-the-supply-of-recycled-glass

Friday, May 29, 2020

Olivine The Key to Reducing Carbon Emissions

While there are tons of variables and changes we can make in our daily habits the best solutions are ones that take the CO2 out of the environment for us and let humans interact as they previously were. In a recent Fast Company magazine article there's a non-profit in the Caribbean testing spreading a green sand like material on the sand that when the waves roll over it will start the process to reverse CO2 emissions.

We're excited for the trial and I'm looking into a potential donation to Project Vesta and encourage others to do their research as well.

Done at scale on beaches and in the shallow water on continental shelves, it could make a major difference. “If we spread olivine over 2% of the world’s shelf sea, then that will be enough to capture 100% of human emissions,” Green says.

More Information can be found here: https://www.fastcompany.com/90510254/ever-been-to-a-green-sand-beach-the-newest-geohack-to-fight-climate-change

Wednesday, May 27, 2020

Google Patent to Stop Domain Squatting and Spoofing

To help lower scams and malware injections as a result of spoofed domains that are one character off and then compromise innocent web victims. Hat tip to the security team for working on this one: https://patents.google.com/patent/US20200099716A1/en

Saturday, May 9, 2020

Willem de Kooning Made Fun of Andy Warhol

At a dinner party at the end of the 1960's two of the worlds biggest artists had an interaction and well Willem de Kooning was not a fan of Andy to say the least.. He said while being intoxicated at a party: “You’re a killer of art, you’re a killer of beauty, and you’re even a killer of laughter,”


Warhol thought of art as a business not as de Kooning did. He told a New York reporter in 1969 that
“The new art is really a business,” “We want to sell shares of our company on the Wall Street stock market.”

Perhaps his thinking was what has changed and influenced art and it's capitalist approach since.

Would you buy Warhol branded linens and bed sheets today? Maybe Murakami will come out with them and Uniqlo and Muji will be the ones selling them.

Monday, May 4, 2020

Boom Coming in GMP certified and sterile vials that are FDA approved

GMP Certified and Sterile Vials that are FDA approved will be a needed commodity. I thought I read about it in Bill Gates piece here: https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/Pandemic-Innovation but its not there any more...

Saturday, May 2, 2020

Richart Ruddie Expert Witness for Online Defamation

As no stranger to online defamation running and advising for some of the top reputation management agencies in the world, I've also helped as an expert witness to showcase damages as a result of defamatory information that has been posted online that has harmed a plaintiff.

In the cases that I've worked on involving lawsuits based on material posed online that damaged the plaintiffs character and was then used to hurt their business and bottom line.

With my help I developed an overview of the damage caused as well as calculations and costs to repair. Now I regularly received inquiries for expert witness testimonials and write ups for legal cases around the country.

I've created a profile on Expert Pages as an online Defamation Expert and have contributed helpful content to their website.

Wednesday, April 29, 2020

Photos of Richart Ruddie

Few random photos to upload of myself (Richart Ruddie) ranging from volunteering at an orphanage in Costa Rica feeding hungry children who were delighted to have visitors and to play soccer and try out flappy bird on an iPhone.




Other miscellanous photos of family, friends in Las Vegas and California, a Cat, and screenshot from that time I was on a DJ radio station as the top donor for the fan giveaway with Jauz, Alison Wonderland, and in another DJ show I would be on the same show as Eric Prydz. 









Thursday, April 23, 2020

Find your Shokunin

The Japanese word shokunin is a Japanese word that means "Expert" or Artisan who finds a craft and perfects that craft for their entire life. If you've ever wondered why Japan has the best Beef (Kobe Beef) or Knives then you can look to their culture and the word Shokunin where Japanese pick a craft at a young age and work on it their entire lives always improving and perfecting. 

What is your Shokunin?

Sunday, April 19, 2020

Richart Ruddie Art Collection Now on Display

Parts of the art collection are now on display thanks to a Art Daily piece which we're curating in this documentation here: https://www.docdroid.net/jY2opka/richart-ruddie-art-collection-pdf

Some of the pieces include Pablo Picasso, David Yarrow, Andy Warhol, Yayoi Kusama, Takashi Murakami, Mr., and many more.

Also a top collector is DJ Steve AokiL https://richartruddie.blogspot.com/2019/06/steve-aoki-is-top-art-collector.html

Thursday, April 9, 2020

First Self Storage in America was here in Fort Lauderdale, Florida

Fun fact of the day is that the first self storage facility in America was called Lauderdale Storage and was opened in 1958. The facility was owned by the Collum family here in Fort Lauderdale.

Monday, April 6, 2020

Coronavirus is nothing compared to what he went through

It's all about perspective and past experiences. When you anchor that the coronavirus is a luxury in this piece from The Cut: https://www.thecut.com/2020/03/what-it-takes-to-survive-a-disaster.html

Friday, April 3, 2020

What is Prurient Sexual Nature

Looking at the disaster relief package and seeing that it heavily emphasizes something called: "prurient sexual nature" and now you're wondering what the heck is Prurient Sexual Nature and what does that mean?

Prurient is defined as: "
having or encouraging an excessive interest in sexual matters." So strip clubs, pornography related businesses, and sex workers are absolutely excluded from getting that disaster relief that the other industries are in need of.

Thursday, April 2, 2020

Will Coronavirus Actually Save Lives because of less road activity?

Last year in the world there were approximately1.25 million traffic deaths globally according to the World Health Organizations latest stats (2013

In the world the number one cause of death among youngsters 15-29 years of age is car crashes. With the Coronavirus in full force locking down the world and emptying the roads I am eager to look at the data in 2021 or 2022 when it's available and measure the total road deaths vs. previous years and then calculate if more lives were saved because of inactivity during COVID-19 vs. people going out and living.

While COVID-19 is currently the 3rd leading cause of death in the country Heart Disease and Cancer are still far outpacing this and we should shift focus (not right now) to resolving these causes of death of which many are preventable (90% I believe the number is).

Overall the question we can look back at and ask is Was less activity creating less deaths even with the increase in COVID-19 deaths? Approximately 101 people die in the USA a day on the road. What is that number going to be for April 2020 the month the USA took a pause.

Wednesday, March 18, 2020

Timeframe Between Market Crashes

Interesting chart to display with timeframes between crashes. The key is staying out of the frenzy and selling off during the drawdown, buying when there is blood in the streets and I can't comment as to whether it makes sense to trade in and out of the market as it is too hard to time and you may miss good opportunities. The market as it is today is where it was 4-5 years ago now. Would it have made sense to sit out during this?



Whats interesting is also the time frame between Market Crashes that creates buying opportunites in 1970, 1973, 1980, 1987, 2000, 2008, and 2020    3 years, 7 years, 7 years, 13 years, 8 years, and 12 years, between draw downs beginning. So after looking at this if you don't want to chase the market you can wait anywhere from 3 years to as many as 13 years for the next good buying opportunity and I believe these "Black Swan" events are ergodicity.  

Friday, March 13, 2020

Empty Parking Lot due to Corona Virus

The parking lot out at my Utah office is looking barren due to the Corona Virus scare. IMO it's the uncertainty and fear that has caused much greater problems and issues than the actual virus itself which is no more dangerous than driving on the interstate.

Tuesday, March 3, 2020

Aspen Art Museum Kusama Exhibit Gone Due to Elevator Being Blocked

I had the pleasure of visiting the Aspen Art Museum, They had up until Sunday February 23rd a single Light Room showcasing Yayoi Kusama's infinity lights. Unfortunately when they were planning it out the setup was blocking the elevator and with the city of Aspen unwilling to give in and the Museum unable to find a new place to put the exhibit it unfortantely closed a bit early.

No staff is allowed to talk about the incident and refers you to read about it online so if you're researching this then here is the answer you've been looking for.

I am personally offering a couple of my Kusama pieces on loan to the Aspen Art Museum and have sent them an email offering such to appease those future visitors who would love to see the greatest Japanese Female Artists work when visiting the AAM.

I am still awaiting a response from the curation team.

-Richart Ruddie

Thursday, February 13, 2020

Grit, Courage, and Creativity

What do you need to succeed in the real world? Well according to a recent builtin piece exploring Zillow's rapid growth their growth hacking team credits hiring people who have those three attributes to help them innovate and expand constantly iterating on new or static concepts to see how they can expand beyond just the current traffic that the platform was receiving.

Creativity to dream up new tests to run that may be the daily email alerts on properties you may like or coming up with the courage to take risks and “try things that fail, cause a lot of growth is failure.”

Not all things work all the time and timing is important but persistence with those 3 attributes are a combination for success IMO.

Sunday, February 9, 2020

Quote From Scott Weilands Book Dead and Not For Sale

Sifu Simonet was a mentor to the late Scott Weiland of Stone Temple Pilots. He practiced a kung fu art form called Pentjak Silat Tongkat Serak. He had his own philosophies that inspired Weiland deeply and potentially kept him alive longer than he would have been otherwise.

After reading Weilands book there's a quote that sticks out that says:

"My art form never stops evolving. I can never repeat myself because the past is gone and the present is ever new, ever changing."


It's from a book called Dead and Not for sale. I recommend it.



Follow me on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/richartruddie?lang=en

Tuesday, January 28, 2020

2020 Fact: More People Will Go to Libraries than you think

The facts don't lie. While there are a lot more libraries than there are sports stadiums and teams it's still an impressive fact. Many use the local library to rent movies and books or to get online. Read more from this Team Builder project: https://www.libraries2020.org/but_nobody_uses_libraries_anymore
 
Official website