Friday, October 9, 2020

Why We're So Bad At Predictions

This piece from Nassim Taleb explains why we're so bad at predicting the pandemic and the outcomes of total deaths.

Source: https://forecasters.org/wp-content/uploads/Talebetal_25062020.pdf

MAIN STATEMENTS from the piece:

(i)– Forecasting single variables in fat-tailed domains is in violation of both common sense and probability theory. 

(ii)– Pandemics are extremely fat-tailed events, with potentially destructive tail risk. Any model ignoring this is necessarily flawed.

(iii)– Science is not about making single points predictions but about understanding properties (which can sometimesbe tested by single point estimates and predictions). 

(iv)– Sound risk management is concerned with extremes, tails and their full properties, and not with averages, the bulk of a distribution or naive estimates. 

(v)– Naive fortune-cookie evidentiary methods fail to work under both risk management and fat tails,because the absence of evidence can play a large role in the properties. 

(vi)– There are feedback mechanisms between forecast and reaction that cancels the invalidity of some predictions. 

(vii)– Exponential dynamics automatically satisfies the mathematical condition for chaos and its unpredictability

Other great data and information to help educate us and make us smarter while being more accountable you can read: https://forecasters.org/wp-content/uploads/Ioannidisetal25062020-1.pdf

Friday, October 2, 2020

The 5 Types of Inflation to examine for your business

COBI - Cost of Business Inflation COGI - Cost of Government Inflation COII - Cost of Investing Inflation COLI - Cost of Living Inflation

Friday, September 25, 2020

Richart Ruddie of Fort Lauderdale Florida Says this is 17.5x More Deadly than COVID-19

 




Cardiovascular diseases will be approximately 17.5 times more deadly than COVID-19. The big difference is that the ease in which you can catch COVID-19 and how rapidly it affects you and has the potential to activate other immunocompromised issues and kill you.

So it's not that COVID-19 is even nearly as deadly as other issues but it's more rapid. Only car accidents according to the chart above states that it's more deadly with little to no notice. So what do we do? Once COVID-19 is erradticated we should focus on curing cardiovascular diseases, cancers, and other lifestyle activities that cause these issues.

So don't be afraid because if you looked at the chart above you would think you're odds of dying are severly increased. Sometimes ignorance is bliss but make health conscious decisions to improve your lifestyle and logevity.

Tuesday, September 22, 2020

Startup Idea Generator Website

Looking for a startup idea generator that you can claim as your own? Using the power of artificial intelligence has created a software that spits out ideas using different startup API's and if you like an idea you can claim it for $99 and have it removed from the website. Some of the ideas for startups are listed below and if you want to see some of the ones for yourself go visit: https://ideasai.net

A company that makes “smart” luggage tags, allowing users to track their bags with the app.

A startup that setsup automatic payments to charities

A startup that lists jobs for students for the summer. (well yes this  has been done we know that)

A startup that provides a list of physical therapists and one with massage therapists.

Follow Levelsio on Twitter. Definitely a bright mind who is onto big things.
https://twitter.com/levelsio/status/1299329172800765957

He is also the creator of other well known product hunt sites like:

nomadlist.com


remoteok.io

hoodmaps.com

makebook.io

ideasAI.net

Monday, September 14, 2020

Kurt Cobain's House Address 171 Lake Washington Blvd E Seattle, Washington 98122 USA for your Grunge in Seattle Washington Tour

 For the Grunge enthusiats that want to visit the home of the late Kurt Cobain where he passed away in 1994. As it felt like just yesterday some who have never been to Seattle would like to see the places that Kurt went to. One home that you can drive up to the gate while respecting the current owners privacy is the home he last lived in at:

171 Lake Washington Blvd E
Seattle, Washington
98122 USA

In addition if you want to take a road trip down to the small town of Aberdeen, Washington you can visit his grave, the memorial for where he lived as a homeless person under the bridge and get a vibe about the town that he grew up in. I went to the town recently and felt it. If you're a die hard grunge or Nirvana fan than I recommend you to visit as well.


Sunday, August 30, 2020

Quote of the Day

Bill Gates wrote about a quote today for Warren Buffets Birthday: 

“You will move in the direction of the people that you associate with. So it’s important to associate with people that are better than yourself. The friends you have will form you as you go through life. Make some good friends, keep them for the rest of your life, but have them be people that you admire as well as like.”

Saturday, August 22, 2020

Childish Gambino Got his Name from a Wu-Tang Clan Name Generator

 That's right Daniel Glover put his name into the Wu Tang Clan Name generator and out came "Childish Gambino"

Try it for yourself and see:

http://www.mess.be/inickgenwuname.php

 
Official website